What a week! Crazy finishes, bad beats, and some big wins. A cloudy and rainy Sunday was perfect for another great day of NFL football. Lessons were learned and detailed below.
Stay tuned for the Vikings preview for tonight's MNF game vs the Bears!
This Week’s Record: 5 – 2
Overall: 19 – 13
Bad Beats:
Something to know about me: I LOVE betting all the games. Something I need to learn from this week: I NEED to stop changing my bets, and hammering games I haven’t picked on here. Here were my bad beats this week:
CLE -4.5 (Pain) / SEA O 55 (Pain) / DEN +3.5 and Over 52.5 (SUPER PAIN) / NYG O 44.5 / Ravens.
Week 10 Pick Recap:
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (Bye Week)
Raiders won big against the Broncos at home. Right now the Chiefs are a touchdown favorite for next Sunday night, and I expect that line to come down a little. But I like the Chiefs big against the Raiders right now, but I will hold off on an official decision until Thursday’s preview. Stay tuned!
#2 Pittsburg Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 4:25pm) – WIN PIT -6.5
The question was consistency surrounding the Bengals. The answer is that they are still inconsistent. The question for the Steelers was Ben being able to play and the defensive response following the Cowboys game. Ben: over 300 yards and four touchdowns, defense: 324 yards allowed, but only 10 points and two turnovers were the highlights. I cannot wait for the upcoming prime time games for the Steelers versus the Raves and the Bills. Both games are going to be great and probably the difference between having an undefeated season or not.
#3 Buffalo Bills at #4 Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05pm) – LOSS AZ-3
While the bet may have lost (due to a kneel on the PAT), everyone won with this game. What a fun game to watch, and what an ending. Both of these teams are going to be in the playoffs, and both have the potential to go far. It was exactly what I would expect in a game between these teams ranked at #3 and #4. Seattle is favored against the Cardinals Thursday at -3, and it must be because the odds makers are anticipating a bounce back. I can tell you right now, if you can, grab that +3 with the Cardinals. The Seahawks are dead. The Bills head into a bye week, and I am looking for them to return with a vengeance and feel bad the Chargers on 11/29. I hope it snows.
#5 Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1pm) – WIN - JAX +14.5 (tease)
Every week is a lesson, we are learning this week not to change picks after doing the research. Last week we learned not to bet double digit favorites. The Jaguars covered this with ease and even had a chance to win. I was hoping they would pull something off to help out the Vikings, but that’s the way it goes. Here’s the thing about the Packers, they are also inconsistent, but not in winning games, in covering spreads. At 7-2, I think they are still going to get out of the first round of the playoffs, but I don’t think they have the defense to go any farther than that. Next week’s game versus the Colts is going to be interesting. The Colts are currently a -1.5 favorite and 64% of bets are on Indianapolis. This is a classic trap, and my knee jerk thoughts on seeing that is to take the Packers. But, we will see Thursday.
#6 New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25pm) – WIN NO -9.5
The Saints are good. Drew Brees got a little banged up and I am seeing that he has bruised ribs. They went through this last year though and with T. Hill and Winston, I am sure they aren’t worried. They need to keep winning to stay ahead of the Bucs and that is going to fuel them forward. Next week they face the Falcons coming off the bye and two wins in a row and I am excited to watch that game.
#7 Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (Sunday Night Football) – WIN - PAT +7 (Original Pick - I am an idiot and changed it, I hope you didn't)
This game is dumb, and I am an idiot. The line dropped to -6.5 and I took the Ravens, even though I was on the Patriots when the preview blog was written. I then spent the better part of three hours kicking myself. Here are the facts. The Patriots are not good. The executed a great game plan for the elements. The Ravens got out coached and made way too many mistakes. The amount of errors on the snap from center was INSANE. I am done thinking about this game and will try and forget it the rest of this week.
#8 Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:25pm) – LOSS - SEA +2.5
“Give me the Seahawks and the over.” – WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.
Wilson looks lost. He has DK and Lockett and he looks LOST. The reason? Their offensive line SUCKS. Their defense SUCKS.
The Seahawks are DEAD. That is all. It’s the end of week 10 and the Seahawks are DEAD.
#9 Tennessee Titans vs #10 Indianapolis Colts (Thursday Night Football) – WIN IND ML
Here’s an example of me seeing the board, understanding what’s going on, making a decision and WINNING. We need to get back to this formula, rinse and repeat for all NFL games. Titans are good, not great, Colts are good, not great. Both these teams could cause problems for teams looking for a higher seed, but I do not see them winning a playoff game if they sneak in to the mix.
Thanks again for reading!
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~RD
