As they say in the business world: “Let me level set some expectations.”. I want to think those of you who are reading these and enjoying them as much as I like writing them. Please note that I am not claiming to be an expert in any way, and have only started gambling and tracking it since September 2019. I have definitely nerded out on it however and find it extremely fun!
Super custom spreadsheet / database does exist, sneak peak below:
I cannot express this enough that should you be in a state where it is legal, to do so responsibly and I do not unit shame, as most of my bets are extremely modest. Do what works for you to have fun and remain financially sound. That being said, I hope you continue to enjoy my predictions and recaps as I continue to improve my skillz.
Now for the Week 7 review, remember I will have the new rankings and Week 8 picks out Thursday… *deep breath*.
Last week’s record for official picks*: 5 Wins – 1 Loss – 2 Grey Zones (see explanation below), but call it 5-3!
*Note: I usually have a huge card, which is traditionally a stupid thing to do if you’re a serious gambler. I like to have a little action on most games, but for this week am only included the record of the picks I put in the preview blog. If you would like to see my whole card to see how I did, let me know in the comments and I can post that as well.
Week 7 Recap
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos - Win
I was scared that the Broncos were going to be able to air it out and keep up with the Chiefs, and I was even more scared when I saw it was snowing (challenge of making picks on a Thursday). The Chiefs did what I thought they would do though and won in impressive fashion, which helped me start to climb out of a little bit of an NCAAF hole I had dug for myself. I took the over as well in a same game parlay that cashed with multiple units… and that was nice.
What impressed me most is the Chiefs defense seems to be getting stronger as the season wears progresses. With the Jets coming to town on Sunday, I am VERY interested to see where the line is set on Thursday, currently it’s at -19.
- Pittsburg Steelers vs 7. Tennessee Titans - Win
I am always one to hold myself accountable. I won the bet, but I said that Claypool was going to go off and the dude had 1 reception for -2 yards. So, you could bet that Vrable had him circled in the game plan. What he did not account for was the Steelers run defense and depth in receiving. I think the recipe for success in beating the Titans will be if a team can hold Henry to under 100 yards rushing. If you do that, odds are you win the game.
Here’s what I do know: the Steelers are legit and the game versus Baltimore on Sunday is going to be electric. The line is VERY interesting right now at -3.5 favoring the Ravens at home. I have not read anywhere yet if Baltimore is allowed limited fans or not. I wish they would flex it to Sunday night. In fact, I think someone should start one of those bullshit petitions to do so… that’ll help. As for the Titans, it will be interesting to see where the line ends up for their game in Cincy. The Bengals right now are home underdogs at +5.5.
- Green Bay Packers vs Houston Texans - Win
Never, ever, ever bet against the Packers and Rodgers after a loss. I knew they were going to win, I did think it was going to be closer than it was, but it’s always nice to have a couple of games in your pocket, while you sweat out the rest.
The Packers host the Vikings Sunday and as of right now they are only giving up -6.5. To me that’s a steal right now, but I don’t make my bets until Sunday, because people get hurt or they get the COVID. Things change day by day. But if I was betting right now, I would hammer the Packers at -6.5 against a Vikings team that is lying to itself about playing for this year after just trading away a starting DE to Baltimore.
- Seattle Seahawks vs 6. Arizona Cardinals - Win
I am not going to lie. I took AZ with the points and also a SG Parlay with Arizona moneyline and the over. The worst part? Hand Up. I fell asleep in the third quarter. Unacceptable, I know. I am human though and I do make mistakes. I was elated to wake up and see that they had squeaked it out on a clutch interception.
DK Metcalf’s speed is unreal pic.twitter.com/5OFpjuim2s
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) October 26, 2020
I maintain that the Arizona defense is legit and only going to get better. Budda Baker is the truth, and I feel bad for him getting immortalized via memes by letting DK catch him, but the Cardinals should have capitalized. That’s going to be the difference in the Cardinals making it far in the playoffs or not, is keeping their offense consistent and capitalizing on the opportunities that the defense gives them. Going into the bye week though, they have to be happy with where they stand.
As for Seattle, they’ll be fine, but they need to do a better job protecting Wilson and protecting the football. Seattle hosts the 49ers next week, who are coming off of a big win against a SHITTY Patriots team. So much of that game was focused on how bad the Patriots were that I am reading rumblings that Jimmy G may be on the hot seat in San Fran following his two picks. I EVEN heard that Shanahan could be interested in Cousins. What a world. I digress. The line right now is -3 in favor of the Seahawks. I will have my prediction on Thursday.
- Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets - Loss
ONE TOUCHDOWN. ONE TOUCHDOWN. ONE TOUCHDOWN.
That’s all they needed. Blame the turf monster, blame whatever, this game killed me. I had hammered the Bills and even teased the line to -9.5 in case they won by 10 (the line was -10.5 on Sunday morning). Unreal. What an insane game. What does this say to me? The Bills are fake. Sure, they won the game and that’s what “matters”, but not being able to punch it into the endzone on that many redzone trips is not a reflection of the Jets defense I assure you.
The Bills are favored -3.5 at home against the Patriots on Sunday and that’s sure to be a dumpster fire of a game. I can’t even begin to think about it. I am still blown away that they only were able to throw the ball to Diggs for 6 receptions for 48 yards. He should have had a career day. That’s on the offensive coordinator in my eyes.
*Sigh* *End Rant*
I feel a little bit better… not really.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Las Vegas Raiders – Win
Who played in the game? JPP and Winfield Jr. Who won? Bucs. Winfield Jr. with a pick and Brady had a 127 QBR. I also hit a same game parlay with Gronk and Waller both scoring TDs +750, which helped ease the pain inflicted on me by the Bills (not over it). The Bucs are a good team, but only rushing 85 yards as a team isn’t sustainable. Will it hurt them next Monday night playing against the Giants? Probably not. But, against the Saints, Panthers, Rams and Chiefs, they are going to have to step it up.
- Chicago Bears vs LA Rams – Loss – KINDA.
This is a loss. Because, I got in my own head and switch to the Bears yesterday at 4pm. I was wrong and I have learned my lesson. Unless there is a major line change from Thursday to game day, I have got to stick with my pick.
So, I am humbling myself, and I sincerely apologize to Coach McVay. I said in the preview that he was going to be ready, and they were READY. Chicago looked LOST and the Rams looked DOMINANT on defense and efficient enough on offense to be effective.
What was clear: both defenses are really really really good. The Rams offense is better than Chicago’s offense, but is it good enough to compliment their defense in the long run? We will have to see. I will say I am looking forward to watching Darnold chase Tua around on Sunday. As for the Bears, they need to sort themselves out on offense or Sunday is going to be a rough day at home against the Saints.
Thursday Night Football: New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles – Loss – KINDA
This game was a little more interesting than I thought it would be, especially with the Giants making a game of it. I don’t regret giving out moneyline for the Giants as well as the spread, but it didn’t hit, so it is what it is. As far as the NFC East goes, I think the Washington “Football Team” *gag* may be in prime position to win the division, which will be silly. But with Head Coach Mike Rivera completing his final cancer treatment (congratulations), I think the team is motivated.
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