Welcome to Week 10, where who knows who is healthy, who has COVID, who is playing and what the replacements will do when they get in the game!
Let’s have some fun!
Last Week’s Record: 4 – 4
Overall: 14 - 11
- Kansas City Chiefs (same)
- Pittsburg Steelers (same)
- Buffalo Bills (was 8)
- Arizona Cardinals (was 3)
- Green Bay Packers (was 7)
- New Orleans Saints (previously unranked)
- Baltimore Ravens (was 5)
- Seattle Seahawks (was 4)
- Tennessee Titans (was 7)
- Indianapolis Colts (same)
Considered: Dolphins, Bucs, Raiders, Rams
Week 10 Preview and Picks:
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (Bye Week)
Based on how things are going, I think this is the Chiefs year, unless they shoot themselves in the foot. They return after the bye versus the Raiders on Sunday night looking to avenge their only loss. That line will be interesting, because I would be on the Chiefs to win big after a bye.
#2 Pittsburg Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 4:25pm)
The Bengals are coming off a big win vs the Titans and the Steelers are coming off a disappointing win vs the Cowboys. The line right now is in favor of the Steelers -7. The biggest question in my mind is the health and status of Big Ben. Every indication out of Pittsburgh is that he will be playing. One thing I do know is that there is no way that the Steelers defense doesn’t show up with a vengeance on Sunday, after the terrible showing vs the Cowboys last week.
On the other side of the ball, the question is consistency for the Bengals. With their lopsided loss to the Ravens aside, the Bengals have been able to consistently score points. It’s more of a focus on their defense, which is giving up an average of 407 yards a game. 144 of those yards have been on the ground, which bodes well for the Steelers if Ben is not able to play. I will be watching Ben’s status as well as the line, but I like the Steelers here after a shitty loss and the Bengals in a letdown off a big ish win.
#3 Buffalo Bills at #4 Arizona Cardinals (Sunday 4:05pm)
The Bills win last week versus the Seahawks was affirming, while the loss to the Dolphins by the Cardinals was concerning. The Cardinals’ Budda Baker is listed as questionable and they are going to need him on Sunday if they are going to slow down the passing attack of the Bills. For the Bills the question in my mind is containment. Can they contain Kyler Murray on passing downs, especially third and medium to stop drives? The odds makers seem to think so, or they are thinking there may be a letdown for the Bills. Currently the Cardinals are favored at home by -2.5, which is basically a toss-up.
Here are my thoughts, if Sunday morning roles around and Budda Baker is out, I am going to take the Bills. If Budda Baker is in, I will take the Cardinals. I just think that if Buffalo can’t through the ball, they going to have a tough time. I also think that the Seahawks defense is terrible, and they may not be prepared for what the Cardinals can do if they’re healthy.
#5 Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1pm)
Last week we all cashed on betting on Rodgers after a loss, this week I think we need to learn from our mistakes and think about the double-digit line at -13.5 for the Packers. The Jaguars almost pulled off a complete come from behind win / tie against the Texans last week and with their new rookie quarterback, may get up to play tough in Lambeau.
Luton is set to start again on Sunday, and I will be interested to see if the line moves. I think depending on the line, the play may be to tease it up to +14.5 in favor of the Jags. That’s what I am going to stick with for now, Jags teased up to +14.5, I don’t think they lose by more than two touchdowns and really think this game may be closer than Rodgers would like.
#6 New Orleans Saints vs San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25pm)
Big win for New Orleans last week, which means it is time for a let down versus a seemingly dead 49ers team right? -9 at home, perfect opportunity to fade the public and take the 49ers. WRONG. The Saints are only half a game ahead of the Bucs for the division and they are in a three-way tie for home field advantage in the NFC.
Sean Payton and Drew Brees have been here so many times they know how important it is to win the games you’re supposed to win. I think the 49ers are able to hang in the first half and then the Saints can pull away late on the shoulders of Kamara. I will take them -9 all day. If the line moves more (it won’t) I may consider switching, but I think -9 is where it will be.
#7 Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (Sunday Night Football)
Any other year this would be a super exciting game. I think there is still somewhat of a rivalry feel here, but not the way it would be if it were between two division leaders. The concern? Lamar coming out this week and saying that other teams are calling out their plays before they snap the ball. That does not bode well when going up against Bill and the Patriots.
I am going to go gut feeling on this one. I am going to take the over at 43.5 and I am going to take the Patriots at +7 right now. If the line goes below 7, I may switch back to the Ravens, but I think this game is going to be close and one, where the Ravens may get out coached… again.
#8 Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:25pm)
Here’s another over game. The Rams are favored in this one at home by -1.5, and there’s a good chance they win. The question mark right now for the Rams is Kupp and whether or not he’s going to be able to play. The Rams are coming off a bye week, while the Seahawks are coming off that loss to the Bills.
In these situations, with dynamic quarterbacks, I tend to side with them after a loss. I said the same thing about Russel Wilson after their loss to Arizona and they went to San Francisco and covered. I think the same happens here, off a loss, the public is on the Rams, because they are betting last week’s game. Give me the Seahawks and the over.
#9 Tennessee Titans vs #10 Indianapolis Colts (Thursday Night Football)
As I am writing this on Thursday, the line for this game is -1 in favor of the Colts. However, when I put in my bets yesterday it was -2.5 in favor of the Titans. Either way, I took Colts moneyline and got the value and also took the Over 48.5. I do not think the Titans can defend well against the pass, and I think Rivers will play better tonight with Hilton back in the lineup after being shutdown in Baltimore.
Rivers is a competitor and will show up tonight. I also am a huge believer in the Colts defense. Again, after a loss last week, I think they bounce back and turn over the Titans at least two times and turn that into points and the difference in the game.
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