Week 6 Pick Record 4-5.
Let me start out with this: I am a man of honor, and I am ALWAYS grinding to improve. So, there will be no punches pulled when it comes to my recap and owning up to some of the terrible takes that were in the week 6 preview. I will review them one by one below and will have my week 7 preview and picks out Thursday.
Now that the season is starting to take shape and teams have caught up on missed / modified training camp and no preseason, I think we are going to see a few teams drop and a few teams rise in the coming weeks. One team that will not be rising however: The Jets. They are terrible, I have no clue how they are going to win a game this year, what a nightmare.
Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Week’s Prediction: This weekend the Packers are -1 against a Tampa Bay team that cannot win if Tom Brady is pressured. I expect the Pack to focus on making Tom move and winning this game that will probably be close. I also love the Over 55.5 in this one.
So, two things happened here. One, the Packers were unable to do anything that I could see to disrupt Brady or throw him off. I think the reason for this is, they were gassed. Why were they gassed? Because, Aaron Rogers had a bad day. This leads me to number two: why did Aaron Rogers have a bad day? Because, Aaron Rogers got excited for a touchdown (that was eventually called back) and decided to do the triple pump from Key and Peele. WHAT AN INSANE MOVE! As soon as that happened, and he threw his first pick, I know the game was over. While I was wrong on my pick and prediction, if they were playing anyone again and a -1, I would take the Packers again.
Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills
Last Week’s Prediction: KC is the front end of the Monday Night double header this week, and they’re facing a Bills team that’s hot off a bad loss to the Titans. I think this is an opportunity for the Chiefs to re-establish their dominance, but with the game in Buffalo and a Buffalo team looking to rebound, I think it’s close and I will take the Bills at +4 right now.
I definitely switched my pick when I placed it yesterday and took the Chiefs -5.5, and I am glad I did. Who knows how this game would have turned out had it not been pouring rain half the time, but I thought the story was the Chiefs defense showing up as well as the Chiefs running it down the throat of the Bills. If the Chiefs can continue down that road and have a balanced attack with their defense continuing to force turnovers, they will continue on their path for a repeat.
Baltimore Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles
Last Week’s Prediction: Baltimore is giving up -8 against the Eagles and there are a lot of questions here, like will Alshon and D-Jack be back this week for the Eagles? Will Peters and Smith be back for the Ravens? There are just too many knowns, but as long as the line stays in single digits, I am on the Ravens.
Boy oh boy, the line moved to +10 for the Eagles, and I had a few people try and talk me out of them, but I stuck with them and snuck out the win. If I am being honest with myself though, the Ravens were the “right” pick. They dominated 90% of the game. Moving forward they need to finish teams out in garbage time or it could come back to bite them. I am sure Harbaugh will drill that into them over their bye week. The Eagles continue to have line issues on both sides of the ball, and I don’t care who you would put in at quarterback, they won’t have success until they can protect from the pass rush.
Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans
Last Week’s Prediction: Houston got their first win last week versus Jacksonville and almost single handedly killed my long shot parlay. Do I think they will cover against a stacked Titans team fresh off a win? No, and certainly not at home. I will take the Titans -3.5 right now.
The line for the titans moved higher, and I still took them and squeaked this one out last minute as well. Thank God for Derrick Henry and overtime. Unlike the Vikings, I think Houston can still push for a wild card spot if they can fix some issues on defense. On the other hand, good teams win games, it doesn’t matter how the win comes. I am hoping for a Titans / KC rematch in the AFC championship game, I think that would be AWESOME to see Edwards-Helaire match up against Henry.
Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers
Last Week’s Prediction: The line for the Rams this weekend is only -3 and I expect that to dominate the mis mashed 49ers offense and win by 10+.
Wow. Wrong. Goff went 19-38 and Henderson rushed only 14 times for 88 yards. That is the story here. The question is, was this attributed to the 49ers defense, or the Rams offense? I wasn’t able to watch much of this game, but I think this comes down to a bad day on offense for the Rams and a good day on defense for the 49ers. The 49ers are 3-3 and the professional analysts are picking them to be a team that bounces back and are back on the Jimmy G bandwagon. I get it though, dude is a rocket. They could be right, and in a crappy NFC conference overall, they could make the playoffs. But I do not see them going past the first round, nor do I see Jimmy G staying healthy. The 49ers next four games are against the Patriots, Seahawks, Packers and Saints. After those four games, we will know if they are legit.
Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns
Last Week’s Prediction: The line for the Steelers Sunday is -4 right now, and it’s going to come down to the Steelers rush defense against the Browns powerful rushing game. I think the Steelers win this in a close one, maybe by a field goal, but not by 4 or more – take the points with the Browns.
I hate saying this. The Steelers are legit. They are protecting Ben, Claypool is super duper good and they will always play good defense. The Browns could not run against that good defense and got worked. I was super wrong about this game and don’t want to talk about it anymore. Good for you Steelers, let’s see what you can do against the Titans next week. To Baker and the Browns: maybe don’t focus on the off the field stuff and figure it out. *Salty*
New England Patriots and Denver Broncos
Last Week’s Prediction: As for Sunday, the Patriots are -9.5 against a 1-3 Broncos team that has teased a Drew Lock return. For me, I will take a rested Cam Newton in New England in a game that could get ugly in favor of the Patriots.
Again. This was a ROUGH week for me. Cam looks like his shoulder is still hurt and the Patriots looked like they lost their coach with the undisciplined plays. The Broncos killed their running game and kicked a bazillion field goals in what was probably the worst game to watch all day. If the 49ers play defense like they did this past week and the Patriots offense can’t figure it out, it will be a bloodbath in Foxborough Sunday. The Broncos host the Chiefs Sunday and it will be interesting to see how they handle the Chiefs’ rookie running back, who’s coming off a short week.
Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys
Last Week’s Prediction: As for Monday, to me, this is easy money, which is concerning. Only currently giving up -1 to a Cowboys team who has only beat the Falcons (who refuse to win) and the Giants, this seems to be an easy pick. The only x-factor I could see odds makers considering is the motivation to “Win for Dak” – I don’t see this happening. Hammer the Cardinals -1. I also love the Over 55 in this one.
So this one I had, I knew it was easy money. The challenge? It was too easy and the over missed. That was severely disappointing. I do not think the Cardinals are THAT good, I think this was a matter of Zeke fumbling twice, and Dallas just looking lost on all sides of the ball. Instead of winning for Dak, it seemed more like they were still sulking. Sad to see honestly, but they need to get their heads straight or it doesn’t matter who they play next (Washington), they’re going to lose. Also, I will have predictions on Thursday, but I like Washington right now after watching that mess (take subject to change).
Thanks for reading,
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