Happy Hanukkah everyone! The power rankings this week were hard to do. One through five to me are no brainers. I have long suspected the Steelers were frauds and the game versus Washington confirmed it. Five through ten, as well as the teams considered are a crap shoot. Now is when games really start getting exciting, as team begin to get eliminated and playoff positioning gets important, every game matters. This week we also have seven 1pm games and six 4pm games, which is going to be a Holiday / COVID Miracle!
Week 13 Record: 4-5 | Overall: 32 – 29 – 1 (52.4%)
- Kansas City Chiefs (same)
- Buffalo Bills (same)
- New Orleans Saints (was 4)
- Los Angeles Rams (previously unranked)
- Green Bay Packers (same)
- Miami Dolphins (was 7)
- Cleveland Browns (previously unranked)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previously unranked)
- Pittsburg Steelers (was 3)
- Arizona Cardinals (was 6)
Considered: Titans, Colts, Ravens, Raiders, Vikings
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (-7, O/U 50.5) at #6. Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1:00pm)
Kansas City struggled against a motivated Denver team to get it in the end-zone. Sunday they are going to be playing a Dolphins team looking to prove they belong with the big boys and solidify a playoff spot. Miami’s schedule is not easy the rest of the way with the Patriots, Raiders and Bills left and the last two games on the road. At 8-4 you would like to think the Dolphins need to win two out of their four games to guarantee a playoff spot. For the Chiefs, the playoff bye is on the line. The Steelers still own the tie break over them and they need to keep pace. I am not sure if Miami will be able to pull out a win here, but they are 75% against the spread in there last 24 games. I will take them plus a touchdown and maybe sprinkle some moneyline for fun. Also on the season, both teams are a combined 15-9 on the under, so I will take that here as well. If the Dolphins are going to stay in this game, they are going to have to play defense.
#2 Buffalo Bills (-2, O/U 46.5) vs #9 Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday Night Football 8:20pm)
The Bills are coming off a big divisional win, while the Steelers are obviously coming off that demoralizing loss to Washington. I have read a couple interesting stats about this game. The Steelers are 11-0 against the spread in their last eleven games as an underdog on Sundays if they played the week prior. The Bills on the other hand are 11-1-1 against the spread when they are playing teams with a winning record against the spread. Is your brain spinning yet? This game is simple to me. The Steelers are frauds. The Bills are good. The Bills will win the game, the bills will cover the spread and the game will go over. The Bills are 9-3 on the over on the year, and the game is at night in Buffalo and it will only be 48 degrees. If it were closer to freezing, I think it would be an under game, but I will pick the over on this one.
#3 New Orleans Saints (-6.5, O/U 44) at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 4:25pm)
I think it is hard to believe that Brees would return to face the Eagles when the Saints have the Chiefs the following week. That doesn’t mean the Saints are going to take the Eagles lightly, I just think it would be silly to not give him another week to heal up. New Orleans is 16-2 against the spread Sundays on the road. I am not looking at any of the stats for Philly, because that was with Wentz. I think this game is a fun back and forth game, with the Saints scoring WAY more than the Eagles. The Eagles defense is good, but it’s also a little beat up and tired of playing the majority of games. The Saints can smell a shot at the first round bye in the playoffs and Sean Payton is going to have them ready to play. I will take the Saints at -6.5 and the over 44.
#4 Los Angeles Rams (-4.5, O/U 44) vs New England Patriots (Thursday Night Football 8:20pm)
Tonight’s game is going over. No question. The public is on the under due to the statistics of both teams, and I got it at 44, it is currently at 43.5. I also locked in the Rams at -4.5 and that is currently the spread as I am typing this now. I made these picks based on the fact that Sean McVay is not going to let Bill out coach him here with less weapons. It’s that simple. Bill Belichick is a wizard, that’s known, but he’s on borrowed time right now with Cam Newton and Cam is due for some mistakes. The Rams defense is going to pull it out of him and that’s going to be the end of it. I also think people are on the Patriots defense too much after they smashed the Chargers who could not adjust to what the Patriots were doing. McVay and his staff will not let that happen to them tonight.
#5 Green Bay Packers (-7/5, O/U 55) at Detroit Lions (Sunday 4:25pm)
I am looking at my picks and they are looking pretty sharp. Here’s a stat. The Packers are 15-7 against the spread when playing on Sunday after having played the week prior. In week two, the Packers doubled up the Lions 42-21. Detroit is 5-7 right now and they are playing really inconsistent. This is a division game and it’s hard to beat a team twice in a season, but the Packers will want to ensure they keep pace with the Saints, I will take them to smash the Lions. I am also on the under. The over in Lions games is 11-1 in their last twelve home games, and I think odds makers are trying to account for that.
#7 Cleveland Browns (+2.5, O/U 47) vs Baltimore Ravens (Monday Night Football 8:15pm)
I am so excited for this game. Baker was unreal last week, and I am interested to see how he will perform coming off that win versus a good Ravens defense. I have the Browns ranked higher than the Ravens just due to their inconsistent play when it comes to winning the game. The stats on both sides say that this game is an under game and with both teams looking to run the ball, I would have to agree. This game has what redemption written all over it. The Ravens beat the Browns 38-6 earlier this season and I think the Browns are ready to answer the bell against a desperate Ravens team. I will take the Browns ML and +2.5.
#8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5, O/U 52.5) vs Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1:00pm)
The stats say over, and I am all for it! Because, that means the Vikings are scoring and if we are scoring, we have a chance to win. I don’t think the Vikes can win this game, but I am a fan and I am going to bet on them. If you are following me for picks, understand that is purely a fan pick and fade me all you want. Here’s the thing. If Kendricks is able to play and is healthy Sunday, we have a shot. But with Barr out and seemingly Kendricks too, this does not look good against Tom Brady and the Bucs rushing game. The best we can do is hope to get in a shootout and try and force some turnovers. If Kirk and team can’t hand on to the football though this game, and the playoffs will get out of reach really quick.
#10 Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, O/U 45) at New York Giants (Sunday 1:00pm)
Will Daniel Jones play? Does it matter? I don’t know. Do I trust the recent success the Giants have had, or will they implode at home in front of no fans and break everyone’s heart? They beat Seattle, who has been sus for a while, they beat Cincy who sucks, then they beat the Eagles and Washington… who suck. The Giants have won four in a row, and the Cardinals have lost three in a row. I am going to go with the Cardinals are not going to lose four in a row and that the Giants can’t win five in a row. That’s a brain pick. I am also on the over. Let’s see how good this Giants defense really is.
Miami +7 / Under 50.5
Buffalo -2 / Over 46.5
Saints -6.5 / Over 44
Rams -4.5 / Over 44
Packers -7.5 / Under 55
Browns +2.5 / ML / Under 47
Vikings +6.5 / Over 52.5
Cardinals -2.5 / Over 45
Thanks again for reading and Happy Hanukkah!
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