It’s nearing the end of the year, which means my day job becomes increasingly annoying in that I do not have any spare time to churn out these blogs, or any of the satirical pieces I would like to, but such is life. We only have three weeks of regular season NFL football left, and it’s the best football. We have Thursday night, two games Saturday, a full slate Sunday, and a boring game on Monday night. I am adding some extra picks in this week to challenge myself and see if we can’t improve.
For those who are new, this is a learning process. I am not an expert and am only in my second season. This is really my first season taking this kind of serious, and I am in no way betting big units. So, don’t worry, I can afford to give the kids Christmas presents this year (so long as I win this week).
With that being said, since Week 6 when I started formally keeping track, my record is below, and starting last week I started keeping track of over / under picks, which DID NOT go well. Why didn’t it go well? I started using a couple more resources for statistics and man, statistics can be really helpful, or they can put your mind in a pretzel.
Let’s just say, I am not going to let stats dictate my decisions anymore, rather use them as a guide of things to keep in mind. Overall, my gut continues to be over 50%, so I trust that more than anything at this point.
Enough talk, let’s get to the picks!
Week 14 Record: 4-4 | Overall: 36 – 33 – 1 (52.2%) | Week 14 O/U Record: 1-7 | Overall O/U: 1-7 (12.5%)
Week 14 Pick Summary:
Miami +7 / Under 50.5
Buffalo -2 / Over 46.5
Saints -6.5 / Over 44
Rams -4.5 / Over 44
Packers -7.5 / Under 55
Browns +2.5 / ML / Under 47
DaLEO’s Power Rankings (Entering Week 15):
- Kansas City Chiefs (same)
- Buffalo Bills (same)
- Los Angeles Rams (was4)
- New Orleans Saints (was 3)
- Green Bay Packers (same)
- Miami Dolphins (was 7)
- Baltimore Raven (previously unranked)
- Cleveland Browns (was 7)
- Indianapolis Colts (previously unranked)
- Tennessee Titans (previously unranked)
Considered: Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders, Bucs
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (-3, O/U 51.5) at #4 New Orleans Saints (Sunday 4:25pm)
Here’s the deal. The Chiefs have been winning, but they have not been great at covering. The Chiefs are 6-7 against the spread while the Saints are 7-6. When I look at those records, the knee jerk reaction is to take the Saints. What you have to remember is the Chiefs normally are giving up bigger numbers, because they are arguable the best team in the NFL. The challenge has been their defense letting teams hang around in games. Based on the information I have today, it seems Hill is still going to be starting for the Saints. I don’t see the Chiefs dropping this game, in fact I see them excelling against a higher level team. I think the Saints is a team they will get up for and win. I will take the Chiefs and the over.
#2 Buffalo Bills (-6, O/U 50) at Denver Broncos (Saturday 4:30pm)
Both of these teams are 8-5 against the spread this year. The spread being what it is, my knee jerk reaction is to take the Broncos with the points, but the Bills have been a force this year. Denver has also kept things close or won versus teams without good defenses. The Bills have a good defense, and I think they will handle Denver. The cold won’t be a factor either, because the Bills are built for the cold. I am going to take the sharp pick here as well and I will also take the over. The Bills are 4-1 on the over as an away team this year.
#3 Los Angeles Rams (-17.5, O/U 44) vs New York Jets (Sunday 4:05pm)
I hate this number. I hate it. But the Rams beat the Patriots 24-3 and the Jets lost to the Seahawks 40-3! I know. This is why I hate it. This comes down to trust for me. Do I trust the Rams to win by more than 18 (3 touchdowns), or do I trust the Jets to cover? I trust the Rams, I trust Sean McVay, and I trust the number one defense in the league. I will take the Rams and take the over. I think the Jets can score ten points and I also think the Rams defense will put points on the board. This will be a big statement game to show that last week’s success versus the Patriots wasn’t a fluke.
#5 Green Bay Packers (-7.5, O/U 55) vs Carolina Panthers (Saturday Night Football 8:15pm)
It’s going to be 28 degrees Saturday night with 5mph winds. The wind isn’t much, but at 28 degrees, it is a factor. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS as an away team this year. As long as they are getting more than a touchdown, I will be on the Panthers. I am betting that Green Bay’s defense will not be able to create as much separation. I am also betting that the cold may impact the long ball. If the Panthers do keep it close, it will have to be a high scoring game, so I will be on the over as well.
#6 Miami Dolphins (-2, O/U 42) vs New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00pm)
Miami lost to the Patriots in week one and you can bet they have been waiting for this game. The Patriots are coming off the loss to the Rams in which they scored only three points. I think Miami is going to make sure they split the season series with the Patriots. The over is hard hear, because I think the under has hit so many times with both of these teams, they are trying to chase it. The stats say under, but I am going to stay over, because I also like rooting for points and I think 42 is too low. The Patriots will score in this game.
#7 Baltimore Ravens (-12.5, O/U 47.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1:00pm)
The Jaguars suck. Lamar Jackson is back. Hopefully he poops before the game, but I would put him down for 2+ TDs again in this game. I think this game could be an under game. Only for the reason that the Ravens gave up so many points to the Browns, I would look for the coaching staff to start to try and lock it down. I will take the Ravens big and the Under.
#8 Cleveland Browns (-5, O/U 44) at New York Giants (Sunday Night Football 8:15pm)
The Browns have not been good ATS. The Giants are 14-2 ATS as an underdog following a loss. This is where I get in my head. Reading those stats, would lead me to think that this is the Giants, and the over, since the Browns are 9-1 on the over when facing teams with a losing record. I think that the Browns, like the Ravens will not be happy with their defensive performance last week. I don’t see Baker and the one – two punch in the running game stopping. The weather looks cold and wet Sunday night in New York with the possibility of snow. I am going to take the Browns here -5 and the under.
#9 Indianapolis Colts (-7, O/U 51) vs Houston Texans (Sunday 1:00pm)
I guess the Colts are good? They have been a hard team to figure out. The Texans suck though and with their depleted numbers, I don’t see them getting close in this game. I will take the Colts -7 and the under. I don’t think the Texans will be able to score, and I think the Colts dominate on Sunday. Normally this would be a scenario where the Texans would be looking to even the season series, but they are just trending down right now, and I do not think they will be able to get up for this game.
#10 Tennessee Titans (-11, O/U 51.5) vs Detroit Lions (Sunday 1:00pm)
Stafford isn’t sure yet if he will be able to play this game, so my bet and the over bet will be dependent on if he plays. If Stafford plays, this is an over game and I am on the Lions to keep it close. If Stafford does not play, I don’t think the Lions will be able to keep their offense on the field long enough to give their defense a break. That’s when Henry comes in and just wears teams down. I am going to assume Stafford plays, but will wait and see how that goes.
Bonus TNF Pick: Las Vegas Raiders (-3, O/U 54) vs Los Angeles Chargers (Thursday Night Football 8:20pm)
So, the line changed from what I got this morning. I got the Over at 54, but I am seeing it elsewhere at 51.5, which actually gives me confidence meaning that the money was on the under. I think this is going to be a shootout and I am on the Raiders to be the last team standing. Like the Rams pick it boils down to trust. I trust Carr more than Herbert, and I trust Gruden more than Lynn. I think Jacobs gets going tonight and I am excited to watch Waller go crazy as well.
Bonus MNF Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5, O/U 40.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (Monday Night Football 8:15pm)
I want to pick the Bengals here so bad. The Steelers just are so overrated based on how they have been playing the last few weeks. Receivers cannot stop the ball and the defense seems to have lost their tenacity. Allen for the Bengals is still questionable, so right now it looks like Flynn is the starter. I am on the side of the stats, which say the under is the bet in this game, which is probably going to be super boring. I am not confident in this pick, but I am going to take the Steelers to cover. They won the first game by 26 and I just do not see the Bengals being able to move the ball on offense and cover. *If Allen is playing, I may switch to the over.
Bonus Vikings Pick: Minnesota Vikings (-3, O/U 47) vs Chicago Bears (Sunday 1:00pm)
Remember, this is coming as a Vikings fan. A Vikings fan who thinks we are going to lose every game. The stats say that the Vikings are 13 – 3 ATS in it’s last 16 games after a loss. This game is going to be a BATTLE. Both teams need to win in order to remain in the conversation for the last wild card spot. The Vikings currently own the tie breaker and could push the Bears out of contention with the win. I am going to take the Vikings and the over. I am taking the over, because if we are losing, I don’t want to not be rooting against points. I also don’t think we will be able to completely shut down the Bears on offense with the holes we have at linebacker.
Chiefs -3 / Over 51.5
Bills -6 / Over 50
Rams -17.5 / Over 44
Panthers +7.5 / Over 51.5
Miami -2 / Over 42
Ravens -12.5 / Under 47.5
Browns -5 / Under 44
Colts -7 / Under 51
Lions +11 / Over 51.5* Pending Stafford
Raiders -3 / Over 54
Steelers -12 / Under 40.5
Vikings -3 / Over 47
Welp, here goes nothing! Good luck to everyone!
Thanks again for reading!
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