Wow, what a roller coaster ride of a week. It’s been smooth sailing so far with winning records each week, and it’s about time I took an “L”. I am licking my wounds and getting back into The Nebula and am ready for a bounce back week. Only two teams are on the bye this week (Bucs and Panthers), and we have a double header on Monday night! It’s shaping up to be another awesome week of football. After the week I have had, I am ready to sit back relax, and watch the full slate of games this Sunday!
Thanks again for reading, don’t forget to give the post a like at the bottom of the page and share with your friends. I am slamming two posts into one here, be prepared for a longer post.
Thanksgiving game record: 0-2*
(*2-0 on Over / Under does not count to total)
Week 12 Record: 3-8-1 | Overall: 28 – 24 – 1 (53.8%)
Week 12 Picks and Results:
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (-3, O/U 56) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5 Loss)
#2 Pittsburg Steelers (-7.5, O/U TBD) vs Baltimore Ravens (-4.5 Win)
#3 Buffalo Bills (-4.5, O/U 53) vs Los Angeles Charger (Win)
#4 New Orleans Saints (-6, O/U 43.5) at Denver Broncos (+15 Loss)
#5 Arizona Cardinals (-2, O/U 49.5) at New England Patriots (Loss)
#6 Green Bay Packers (-9.5, O/U 44) vs Chicago Bears (Loss)
#7 Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, O/U 44.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (Loss)
#8 Miami Dolphins (-7, O/U 44.5) at New York Jets (Win)
#9 Las Vegas Raiders (-3, O/U 53.5) at Atlanta Falcons (Loss)
#10 Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, O/U 49) at Filthadelphia Eagles (Push +6)
Week 12 Recap:
I am back in the The Nebula this week. What a crazy year this is. Now that the playoff picture is starting to take shape, I am looking at who is going to be able to play the role of spoiler. The Falcons shocking the Raiders are a great example of that. There’s no way the Falcons make the playoffs, but they are starting to play consistently and can cause some havoc as the season speeds towards the playoffs. What I am mad at myself for last week is not switching from the Broncos when the QBs were out and not seeing the Bears getting blown out. That’s on me and I will do better this week. With that being said, here’s this week’s top ten power rankings:
- Kansas City Chiefs (same)
- Buffalo Bills (was 3)
- Pittsburg Steelers (was 2)
- New Orleans Saints (was 6)
- Green Bay Packers (was 6)
- Arizona Cardinals (was 5)
- Miami Dolphins (was 8)
- Tennessee Titans (previously unranked)
- Seattle Seahawks (was 10)
- Las Angeles Rams (was 7)
Considered: Colts, Ravens, Raiders, Bucs, Browns
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (-14, O/U 51) vs Denver Broncos (Sunday Night Football)
I hate the spread on this game, but I love the over. The Chiefs pass defense is not the best and is giving up 242.3 pass yards a game right now. According to Yahoo Sports, Drew Lock is back in at quarterback Sunday Night. Both teams are 6-5 against the spread this year, and the Chiefs are winning games by an average of 10 points. For me, I will be on the over and will take the points with the Broncos as long as it’s close to two touchdowns. I expect the line to move, but I think it will be in favor of the Broncos, because right now FanDuel is showing 87% of the bets on the Chiefs.
#2 Buffalo Bills (Even, O/U 47.5) at San Francisco 49ers (Monday Night Football 8:15pm)
The spread on this game right now is even and with the game being a pick-em, it’s sure to be a good Monday Night Football matchup. Both teams are coming off of wins, with the 49ers coming off a big divisional win versus the Rams. I think this could either be a let down game for the 49ers, or a game where they make a playoff push. Ultimately, I believe last week’s win for the 49ers was more about the Rams not playing to their full potential. I do not think the Bills want to lose their divisional lead to the Dolphins and will win this game. I am an over guy, and I am tempted by the line right now at 47.5, but will probably stay away from that. The only other wrinkle in this game is that it’s being played in Arizona, and I think that will have a negative impact on the 49ers.
#3 Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5, O/U 42) vs Washington Football Team (Monday Night Football 5:00pm)
I feel bad for the Redskins, and I am surprised after Wednesday’s game that there’s not more money on the Redskins. Maybe, everyone is thinking what I am thinking, which might be bad. Here’s what I am thinking: the Steelers played like shit on Wednesday. The thinking for me then is that they are going to come out on Monday and SMOKE Washington. On the other hand, Washington is coming off two wins, a long rest, while the Steelers are on a short week. Washington is also in play for the NFC East and will need to keep pace with the Giants. The fact that the Steelers are on short rest and that most of the money is on the Steelers, makes me think that maybe, in this case, I should take the points with Washington. Everyone is also saying the Steelers are overrated. Is this a case where they drop a game? I don’t think they will lose, only because they already played well and got scared versus the Ravens. I will take Washington and the points and expect a nail biter at the end.
#4 New Orleans Saints (-3, O/U 45) at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00pm)
Why is the over on this game 45? That is crazy to me, this game screams over. Everyone must be living in the past, looking at the 24 – 9 game two weeks ago. I am going to not think and take the over on this game. I also am not going to read into the game last week versus the Raiders and take the Saints -3. It’s hard to beat a division rival twice, but the Saints will be ready and prepared after seeing what the Falcons did to the Raiders last week. I just can’t bet on the Falcons.
#5 Green Bay Packers (-8.5, O/U 48) vs Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 4:25pm)
The Eagles have scored 17 points in each of their last three games. That’s funny to me. They also had the insane back door cover for some last week. Thank God I was a push. When that Hail Mary was caught, I was beside myself. Some of these games this year have been crazy with the coaching decisions and the prevent defenses are so frustrating. Packers coming off a win suck against the spread the last few weeks. Ugh. I hate to do this but at 8.5, I think I may have to take the Eagles with the points. They are wildly still in the conversation of the NFC East, and I think they will continue to play hard. This is one where it could be a garbage time cover and the Eagle’s defense will keep it close.
I hate this game. I hope the Eagles win.
#6 Arizona Cardinals (+3, O/U 48.5) vs #10 Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:05pm)
I have been so high on the Cardinals, but last week was BAD. To lose to the Patriots was not a good look, especially from a coaching perspective. With the amount of weapons the Cardinals have, that was a game they needed to win. Now, when looking at the NFC West, as well as the playoff picture this is really a must win for the Cardinals. If the Cardinals lose to the Rams, it helps the Rams solidify their wild card spot and puts pressure on the Seahawks. It also drops the Cardinals to 6-6 and puts them back with the current 5-6 teams. This is the first of their two games this season, so there’s no way to go back and pick the team to split. This game may end up being the Sunday Night Football game in week 17 if the race is as close as it is now. I think teams may have started to figure out how to contain Murray, and with the Rams having Donald and Ramsey on defense, the Rams are an attractive play. My head says Rams, but my heart says to give the Cardinals one more chance. Holy SHIT, the line changed while I was writing this. Now it’s Cardinals +3. I am on the Cardinals. It’s a sign. Book it.
#7 Miami Dolphins (-11.5, O/U 42.5) vs Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1:00pm)
I hate that Flores is considering playing Tua Sunday. Fitzmagic gets no respect. To me this is a challenge, because the Dolphins are going to win this game. But it will be closer if Tua plays. I am going to make my pick contingent on the Dolphins starting quarterback. If Fitzmagic is the starter, I am on the Dolphins giving up the points. If Tua is the starter, I will be on the Bengals getting the points. It’s just that simple.
#8 Tennessee Titans (-5.5, O/U 54) vs Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1:00pm)
Who are the Titans? Who are the Browns? Two 8-3 teams meeting at 1pm on a Sunday is something I am excited for. The line is weird though to me and I think the Titans are getting too much credit for the win against the Colts. Good win, and one I did not see coming, but does it warrant the Titans giving up 5.5 points? These are two good rushing teams, with two good rush defenses. It’s the Browns with the one – two punch of Chubb and Hunt versus the Titans and Henry trying to make a case for an MVP season. Ultimately, when I look at who the Browns have beaten, it’s not as impressive as who the Titans have beaten. It’s for that reason I will ride with the Titans at -5.5. I also like the under in this game.
#9 Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, O/U 47) vs New York Giants (Sunday 4:05pm)
The Giants have won three straight games and are now without Daniel Jones (questionable). Of the Giants 11 games this year, they have only lost two games by ten or more points. This is another one where it’s going to be contingent on the QB. If Jones is playing for the Giants and the line is 10+, I am on the Giants. If Jones is not playing, I will take the Seahawks. One more thing to consider is the D.K. left missed some connections last game, and I don’t think he has back to back bad games. It will be an interesting match up to see if the Giants secondary can slow down the passing attack of Seattle on the road.
Thanks again for reading and have a great Sunday!
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