Welcome to Week 11, where the NFC is wide open, and there are some key matchups that will shape next week’s top 10 and help the playoff picture take place!
Last Week’s Record: 5 – 2
Overall: 19 - 13
- Kansas City Chiefs (same)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (same)
- Buffalo Bills (same)
- Arizona Cardinals (same)
- Green Bay Packers (same)
- New Orleans Saints (same)
- Miami Dolphins (previously unranked)
- Los Angeles Rams (previously unranked)
- Tennessee Titans (same)
- Tampa Bay Bucs (same)
Considered: Colts, Ravens, Raiders, Seahawks
Week 11 Preview and Picks:
#1 Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday Night Football)
This is the first of so many good match-ups this week. As I mentioned in a previous blog, this game on the surface could look like a trap game for the Chiefs after a bye. But, the Raiders are the only team to have beaten the Chiefs this year, so this should be a revenge game. There were 72 points scored in the first game, so naturally I love the over. Right now the line is at -8 in order of the Chiefs and I think that is too much. I think the game will be closer than that, so I am leaning towards taking the Raiders with the points. As long as the spread is over a touchdown I think that is the play, but I think the Chiefs pull of the win in Vegas.
#2 Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1:00pm)
The Jaguars haven’t loss their last 4 games my more than ten. The line for this game is in favor of the Steelers at -10.5. The question being, is that line there to entice you to take the Jags in the hope that they can keep it close? The last three losses that have been close for the Jags have been against mediocre defensive teams at best. I think this game has the potential to get out of control as the Steelers take advantage of a rookie quarterback. Look for Luton to through 2+ picks and lay the number with the Steelers. I also like the under in this game which, right now is at 46.5.
#3 Buffalo Bills (Bye Week)
Pain. The Bills need this bye to pick themselves up after the dagger that Murray threw to Hopkins at the end of the game last Sunday. They host the Charges at home the following week and I look for them to bounce back with a win, unless Herbert is able to summon some extra special moves with his new haircut.
#4 Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday Night Football)
My gut said right away to pick the Cardinals. But, then I started to think about all the reasons why the Seahawks would be favored. They are at home, they are coming off multiple losses, Wilson hasn’t been playing well, they are bound to bounce back right? Right? WRONG. Here are the facts. Seahawks defense: not good. Seahawks offensive line: not good. Seahawks running game: not good. All the Seahawks have now is Wilson and two stud wide receivers that he no longer has time to get the ball. Will they score tonight? Oh yea, I am taking the over 57 and I am also taking Cardinals +3 (if you can still get it) as well as Cardinals moneyline. I also have a couple of props due to value: Fitzgerald (+3000) and Hopkins (+525) for two TDs as well as Hopkins to score at (+105).
#5 Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 4:25pm)
As a Vikings fan here, I am trying SO HARD to keep this unbiased. What is super frustrating is that that Colts are favored at -1.5 right now and 60% of the public is on the Colts. Here’s the thing, the Colts defense is good. But both teams have played inconsistently. The Packers are coming off a close game with the Jags where they did not play great. The Colts are coming off a game where they beat another inconsistent team in the Titans. I do not like betting against the Packers after they haven’t played great and I think I have the pattern down.
- Vikings to beat the Packers – check
- Bet the Packers to cover off a loss – check
- Bet against the Packers on the spread after a win – check
- Bet the Packers to cover at +1.5 and Moneyline this week vs the Colts. DO IT.
#6 New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00pm)
This game scares the shit out of me, because Winston changes everything. Can Sean Payton plus his Lasik surgery help him to avoid throwing touchdowns to the other team? I have no clue. What I am going to do is go back to my own personal formula. That formula is: NEVER BET THE FALCONS. It’s just that simple. They have won two in a row, they will not win a third and right now the line is -4 and I am more comfortable laying -4 with the Saints at home than I am trusting the Falcons. The Saints defense is also playing really well so I am on the Under 51.5 as well.
#7 Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:05pm)
This has gotta be a sharp pick. Miami’s defense is NASTY. Will the elevation affect them this Sunday? I think it may a little, but not nearly enough to help out Denver. The Raiders held them to 12 points last week, and while I think they may score 17 on Sunday, that’s only if they are lucky and I will take Miami (-3.5) all day. It’s super sharp and the thought is eventually they are going to drop a game, but not this Sunday.
#8 Los Angeles Rams at #10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday Night Football)
I hate that the Rams are good. I dislike the Rams and I do not know why. I just don’t like them. Right now the public is split on this game with the Bucs being favored at -4. The Bucs, much like Green Bay keep winning, but changing up covering the spread. Both teams are coming off a win and I think this game will be really close. When I think that, I am usually apt to take the team with the points. So, that’s what I am going to do. I am going to take the Rams +4 and look for the game to be decided late by a field goal with no stress.
#9 Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1:00pm)
Baltimore is favored right now by -5.5 and is also the public’s favorite at 63% on the Ravens. THAT IS INSANE. People are betting the Ravens bounce back from Sunday night and that the Titans are terrible because they lost to a good Colts team. I am on the Titans all the way at +5.5 and I am also on them moneyline at +210. I will probably try and lock that price in soon, because I bet the line drops to -3.5 by Sunday morning. There’s no way the Ravens will be able to stop the running attack of the Titans and I think Vrabel gets his defense up and ready for Lamar and the Ravens.
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