NFL Conference Championship Preview

Who faded me? If you did, I am sorry. NOT.

What a weekend last weekend! I hope everyone had as much fun as I did. I will only mention this once, but I am sad we are almost done with football for the season. I guess there’s basketball and hockey. For some reason, it’s just not the same. Let’s stay focused on the positive though, shall we?

Tomorrow we have two great matchups with no shortage of storylines. Enjoy the second to last game blog for the 2020 NFL season!

Thanks for reading!

Divisional Round Record: 6-2 (75%) | Overall: 10-9-1 (53%) | Straight Record: 7-4 (64%) | O/U Record: 4-5-1 (44%)

Divisional Round Picks:

Rams +6.5 / Over 45.5
Bills -2.5 / Under 49.5
Browns +10 / Over 57
TB +3 / Under 51.5
*Denotes a line change when I entered bets

Divisional Weekend Thoughts:

Am I surprised that the Rams didn’t make it a game? No. Was I hoping Rodgers would be taping a Jeopardy episode this week? Yes (RIP Alex). In my opinion this game wasn’t about the players. It was about Matt LaFleur proving that he can coach and get the job done in the big moments. I think last year still leaves a bad taste in his mouth. Buffalo also wasn’t a surprise, but the way in which that game progressed was a surprise.

I do feel bad in a way for some of Ravens nation. They have been so high on this team, losing Lamar like that was back breaking. I am proud of the Browns. I have always been a fan of Baker Mayfield. If they can keep those weapons, mature their playbook, and stay healthy… next year they are going to be a force. The Tampa game for me was meh.

I was hoping for some more drama last weekend. While the Browns tried as the only one possession game last weekend, there just wasn’t the last play type drama. I think we get some this weekend. I am even on the OT prop on both games.

Now, let’s get to the picks!

Divisional Round Preview and Picks:


Green Bay Packers (-3.5, O/U 52) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 3:05pm)

At this point in the season I really focus on gut and feel. So many statistics go out the window in the NFL playoffs. I mean, what were the odds of the Ravens only scoring 3 points? In case you were wondering, I searched for five minutes and didn’t find the exact odds. You get my point. If you are actually reading the blog and not skimming, you should know my pick. It has got to be Matt LaFleur and the Packers. I do not think that he is going to go to back to back NFC Championship games and lose. I think there’s a chance it could be close, but there’s a bigger chance it won’t.

So many people have wanted to see Rodgers versus Brady. I think this is a chance for Rodgers to have a statement game. Yes, this is not Brady in his prime with the Patriots. But it is still Tom Brady in the playoffs. I think they start off strong and the game easily goes over. I can see it being 28 – 21 GB at half-time. While it may be close at half, I think this end up being a two-possession game in the end. I think Brady is forced into some errors in the second half. That will allow Green Bay to pull away.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, O/U 54.5) vs Buffalo Bills (Sunday 6:40pm)

Team of destiny versus a team holding together by a thread. Having Edwards-Helaire back should help the Chiefs. However, the chances his ankle and, or hip is close to 100% are slim. The Chiefs know that they have not be putting teams away well as of late. Have they been winning? Yes. But this Bills team feels different. They can play defense. In fact, the last three games Buffalo allowed just 17.7 points per game. The Chiefs have been allowing 23 points per game. Therefore, I am on the under. I think both teams have been playing better defensively. I think this game is settled by a last-minute field-goal, which is why I am taking Buffalo with the points.

Full transparency, I also have a future on the Bills. So, I have a vested interest in their success. Weather may also play an X-factor as it’s supposed to feel like 30 degrees and a 40% chance of showers. Any sort of rain will start to hurt the long ball by Mahomes. I also think his foot injury is SUS right now. He has been saying it’s a non-issue, but I bet it will have an impact on his ability to load up a fifty-yard pass to Hill. Either way, we will see. Hopefully we will be seeing a bunch of tables getting smashed in happiness in Buffalo tomorrow!

Pick Summary:

Packers -3.5 / Over 52
Bills +3.5 / Under 54.5

Only two more weeks of football left!

Thanks again for reading!

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