This week is brought to you by the best Christmas Movie ever (Blog Here). Last week was full of teams confirming they are for real and ready for the playoffs. The top of the AFC all seem to be ready to go (except the Steelers). The NFC in my opinion is already an underdog no matter who comes out of the AFC for the Super Bowl. You could say the Packers have played the most consistent, but they just haven’t been as impressive in my opinion. The Saints have been banged up with Michael Thomas out last week and the Rams and Bucs have been extremely inconsistent.
I don’t know what to say about the NFC East. If they do end up winning a playoff game, I will be SO surprised. I am anticipating a double-digit spread for that game. Either way, another winning week in game picks and an improvement in my over / under picks. I am hoping to be over .500 in both by next blog!
Thanks for reading, enjoy the games this week, and have a safe and Happy Holidays!
Week 15 Games Record: 6-4-2 | Overall: 42 – 37 – 3 (53.2%) | Week 15 O/U Record: 5-7 | Overall O/U: 6-14 (30%)
Week 15 Pick Summary:
Chiefs -2.5* / Over 51.5
Bills -6 / Over 50
Rams -17.5 / Over 44
Panthers +8* / Over 51.5
Miami -2 / Over 42
Ravens -12.5 / Under 47.5
Browns -5 / Over 44.5
Colts -7 / Under 51
Titans +9 / Under 53
Raiders -3 / Over 54
Steelers -12 / Under 40.5
Vikings -3 / Over 47
*Denotes a line change when I entered bets, blue is a push
DaLEO’s Power Rankings (Entering Week 15):
- Kansas City Chiefs (same)
- Buffalo Bills (same)
- Green Bay Packers (Was 5)
- Miami Dolphins (was 6)
- Tennessee Titans (previously unranked)
- New Orleans Saints (was 4)
- Cleveland Browns (was 8)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (previously unranked)
- Baltimore Ravens (was 7)
- Indianapolis Colts (was 9)
Considered: Rams, Cardinals, Steelers, Raiders,
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, O/U 54) vs Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00pm)
Atlanta is seriously one of the best worst teams ever. I love the over in this game, because Atlanta is going to have to keep pace with the Chiefs. I think the Falcons’ defense will also be able to slow down the Chiefs enough to keep it close.
In fact, the odds are also in the favor of an Atlanta lead that disappears in the second half. The Chiefs are 2-3 as double-digit favorites and if the line stays over 10, I am going to take the Falcons with the points and the over. I have no doubt the Chiefs will win, I just don’t trust their defense yet to close mediocre teams out.
#2 Buffalo Bills (-7, O/U 46) at New England Patriots (Monday Night Football 8:15pm)
Patriots fans should look away. Some may say this is a position where the Bills could be looking ahead to the playoffs, but I think there’s motivation to get the highest seed possible. I think this is a game where the over is going to solely depend on whether or not the Patriots can score. 
If the Bills hold them to field goals at the most, this is going to stay under the total. If the Patriots can score one or two touchdowns, I think it gets close or goes over. I am going to ride with the Bills and the under provided it stays at 46. If the line starts to move, I may rethink my position there.
#3 Green Bay Packers (-3.5 O/U 56) vs #5 Tennessee Titans (Sunday Night Football 8:20pm)
There are some great games this week and this is one of them. Green Bay’s front four is going to get a big test in the cold versus an excellent running game in Derrick Henry. The weather looks like 26 degrees and 12 mph winds, which sounds like an under to me and the number is set to encourage bettors to take it too. 
I am going to go against my knee jerk reaction here and I am going to take the over and I am going to take the Titans with the points. The stats say that after Green Bay ties or loses ATS the week before they are 82.4% to cover. If it wasn’t week 16 with more on the line for the Titans than the Packers, I would be on the Pack. The Packers are playing for the bye, but the Titans are playing for their division and to seal a playoff birth. They cannot afford to lose to the Packers and Houston is going to get up for their game next week.
#4 Miami Dolphins (-3, O/U 47.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (Saturday Night Football 8:15pm)
The Raiders are beat up and not playing well. The Dolphins are last team in right now in the playoff picture. As you are reading you are probably starting to see a trend here and I am going to have to side with some of these playoff teams looking to secure their fate. I am sure some teams would like to or will be able to play spoiler.
In this case, I do not think the Raiders are healthy enough on either side of the ball to make that happen. Give me the Dolphins -3 in a game that starts off close and the Dolphins pull away. It feels like an under game to me, but if the Dolphins turn over the Raiders, it could get out of hand. Since it’s Saturday night and I will be in the Christmas spirit, I am going to take the over and root for some points!
#6 New Orleans Saints (-7, O/U 51) vs Minnesota Vikings (Christmas Day 4:30pm)
I have very mixed emotions about this game. On one hand, I am happy I get to watch my team on Christmas! 
On the other hand, I am not looking forward to potentially watching the Saints invoke revenge on the Vikings for beating them the last two times they played in the playoffs. Because it’s Christmas, I am going to take the Vikings plus the points, sprinkle moneyline, take the over, and pray for a Christmas miracle. Santa lives in the North, so maybe he will hook up one more win for us this year.
#7 Cleveland Browns (-9.5, O/U 47) at New York Jets (Sunday 1:00pm)
The Jets beat the Rams. It’s weird, because I was looking at this game as one that the Jets could win and surprise a rising Browns team. Problem is, with the Jets win last week, if I am the Browns, I am on HIGH alert. 
There is no way the Browns want to suffer the same fate as the Rams. It’s for that reason that I will be on the Browns and the under. I think both defenses play well enough to keep it low scoring, but much like the Browns did to the Giants, I think they cover.
#8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, O/U 51) at Detroit Lions (Saturday Afternoon 1:00pm)
The Bucs are the number one rushing defense in the NFL. They are holding teams to an average of 77.8 yards per game. That means for Detroit that a banged-up Stafford is going to have to do everything versus the Tampa pass rush. 
Tampa’s defense is second in tackles for a loss and fourth in sacks. I think the Bucs are annoyed that they fell behind against the Falcons last week and will come out with a vengeance against the Lions. I think this game is a blow out and goes over, because Stafford will be able to get in the end zone a couple of times.
#9 Baltimore Ravens (-11, O/U 45) vs New York Giants (Sunday 1:00pm)
A Super Bowl XXXV rematch, which would be exciting, except the Giants are NOT good when Daniel Jones is hurt, and just ok with Colt McCoy as their QB. 
The question that will determine if the Giants can cover or not, is can they stop Lamar Jackson. The Giants have been a top ten defense in most categories this year, so the chances aren’t outlandish. Also, the Giants have been double-digit dogs three times this year and have covered each of those games. It’s for that reason that I am going to take the Giants and the under in what will probably be a boring game.
#10 Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, O/U 54) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday 1:00pm)
The Steelers are not playing well, and if you’ve been reading my blogs, you know I have been skeptical of them for a while now. It is INSANE to me that this line is so close. It makes no sense. It makes you think that you should definitely take the Colts. Unless people aren’t watching the same team that I am watching.
In fact, it looks like 70% of the money is on the Colts -1.5 right now. I want to fade the public here so bad, but Ben looked like he had been beat up in a back alley. Ugh. I am going to fade the public, I hate this pick, but I can’t think that Tomlin is going to let them lose three in a row. Also, if the public is on the Colts, and I can get some value with the Steelers at +110 at home I will take it. I will take the over as well, because I think the Colts are going to score, which means Pittsburgh needs to stop dancing and start scoring.
Bonus Pick San Francisco 49ers (+5, O/U 48.5) at Arizona Cardinals (Saturday Afternoon 4:30pm)
I am picking this game, because I want to bet all the games on Saturday. First things first, I am on the over. Cardinals have been giving up points, and so have the 49ers. I will also take the Cardinals to sweep the season series and cover.
I think the 49ers have been trending down, while the Cardinals HAVE to win in order to keep up in the playoff race. If the 49ers end up winning, we could easily see a three-way tie at 8-8 with the Bears, Vikings, and Cardinals if the Vikings pull off the upset on Friday. It will be interesting to see if the line moves at all if the Vikings do win. Right now though, I will take the Cardinals -5 and the over.
Pick Summary (Bolded picks are picks I love):
Atlanta +10.5 / Over 54
Buffalo -7 / Under 46
Titans +3.5 / Over 56
Vikings +7 / Over 51
Browns -9.5 / Under 47
Buccaneers -7 / Over 51
Giants +11 / Under 45
Steelers ML / Over 54
Cardinals -5 / Over 48.5
Thanks again for reading!
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~RD
