Welcome to Week 12, where COVID is still being a pain in the ass and after a hot start, I am feeling lost. We had two insanely dumb games on Thanksgiving, which gave us two overs, which was nice, but the effort from both the Lions and Cowboys on Thanksgiving was terrible; or maybe I am just bitter.
The Ravens and Steelers have been moved (as I am writing this now) to Tuesday, and I am hoping this can serve as a warning to other teams. No more bye weeks! Bring on the weekend!
Here is the Thanksgiving game record: 0-2*
Overall: 24 – 18
(*2-0 on Over / Under does not count to total)
- Kansas City Chiefs (same)
- Pittsburg Steelers (same)
- Buffalo Bills (same)
- New Orleans Saints (was 6)
- Arizona Cardinals (was 4)
- Green Bay Packers (was 5)
- Las Angeles Rams (was 8)
- Miami Dolphins (was 7)
- Las Vegas Raiders (previously unranked)
- Seattle Seahawks (previously unranked)
Considered: Colts, Ravens, Raiders, Bucs, Browns
Week 11 Preview and Picks:
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (-3, O/U 56) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:25pm)
Let down game? No shot. I love that the Chiefs are only favored by -3 and that scares me. Tampa Bay has played some really close games but has also played some really bad games. I am going to go out on a limb here and say the Bucs will not make the playoffs. I think they lose this game to the Chiefs, then lose to the Vikings, only because it no longer matters for Minnesota. I also think they will lose one if not both of their remaining games versus the Falcons who have come on as of late. The fact that there is reported tension between Bruce and Brady makes me think that Bruce does not know how to handle his all start cast. There’s a different way to coach a bunch of all-pro veteran players and calling them out publicly and having a hard-core football guy type of attitude is not it. Give me the Chiefs -3, and I am staying away from the total, because I do not have faith in the inconsistent Bucs offense.
#2 Pittsburg Steelers (-7.5, O/U TBD) vs Baltimore Ravens (Tuesday 8:00pm)
I am feeling super lucky after being upset that the game was moved from Thanksgiving. The line is now -7.5 with Jackson out, but in full transparency, I got the line at -4.5 for Pittsburgh. I am also on the over 45, which is not TBD. Is it possible that RGIII has the game of his life on a Tuesday and de-thrones the Steelers?
Whew… that was funny. The Steelers are going to win, and I would even like the line at -7.5 This is easy, and I look for the line to move even more before Tuesday (if they play).
#3 Buffalo Bills (-4.5, O/U 53) vs Los Angeles Charger (Sunday 1:00pm)
This is a sneaky good game. Herbert is coming off a monster game versus a terrible Jets defense. I think that’s the worse thing that could have happened for the Chargers. If the Bills are smart, which I think they are, they now have a lot to look at and prepare for on Sunday. Josh Norman is back and healthy and I think Herbert throws two interceptions trying to keep up with Buffalo and Buffalo wins this game by a touchdown.
#4 New Orleans Saints (-6, O/U 43.5) at Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:05pm)
Denver is SUPER annoying. They continue to win games when I think they are going to get stomped. Then lose games in which I think they will be competitive. The Saints are on a seven-game winning streak and have the Falcons in Atlanta next week. I think this is a game where they could be looking ahead, and I am going to say it. IT’S A TRAP! I am going to take Denver here +6 and sprinkle moneyline. I think it’s going to be high scoring, so I am on the over as well. The Saints have a chance to go far in the playoffs, but I think this game will serve as a wake-up call and then they will go to Atlanta and destroy them for a sweep next week.
#5 Arizona Cardinals (-2, O/U 49.5) at New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00pm)
The line here to me feels like the odds makers are thinking that people will be betting the Patriots name versus the Cardinals game from last week. I love the Cardinals at -2 and do not expect them to drop two games in a row. If you have been following the blog the Cardinals are my sneaky favorite for the NFC. I would love to see a Mahomes vs Murray Super Bowl. I like the under in this game, I expect the Cardinals to score and the Patriots to suck. Cam Newton to throw two or more picks in this game as well.
#6 Green Bay Packers (-9.5, O/U 44) vs Chicago Bears (Sunday Night Football)
Mitch is starting. Green Bay is coming off of a bad win versus Jacksonville and a loss to the Colts, who are a good team.
The line here is so high, I just think you need to take the points and the Bears defense to keep this one close within the number. I don’t like it, because I had a system where Rodgers plays good after a loss or a bad game. But I don’t think his offensive line is good enough to win this game decisively. I may also sprinkle moneyline with the Bears who are at +380 right now. I love seeing the Packers struggle, and I am hoping I will be enjoying myself on Sunday night and seeing this face.
#7 Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, O/U 44.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:05pm)
This game is boring to me. 49ers are coming off a bye, and the Rams are coming off a good win vs the Bucs. 49ers have lost three straight, all to top 10 teams based on my rankings with their last win coming against the Patriots. I think for the Rams; the playoffs are in sight and they know they need to keep winning to keep pace with the Seahawks. Currently the Rams own the tie breaker, and another division win would help them. Look for them to win here and I think they cover the spread and hit the over in this game.
#8 Miami Dolphins (-7, O/U 44.5) at New York Jets (Sunday 1:00pm)
I hate Miami right now. I hate them, because I want to love them, and they blew it versus the Broncos. Their defense arguably played their worst game of the season, and I think this is an easy bounce back game. The Jets suck. This isn’t rocket science. I was a square last week and got burned. I will be a square this week and pick the Dolphins, because the Jets suck that much. The real storyline in this game will be Tua and how short of a leash he has. I was surprised we didn’t see Fitzmagic earlier against the Broncos and I think if the Jets aren’t up by at least a touchdown by halftime, we could see him in the second half Sunday and I love me some Fitzmagic.
#9 Las Vegas Raiders (-3, O/U 53.5) at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00pm)
The Raiders are good, but they are also inconsistent. I don’t love this game at all. I think it could go either way. I do love the over in this game though, so I will be taking that. Looking at the playoff picture, the Falcons are basically out, so they are playing for pride. The Raiders are in the mix at 6-4 with the Ravens and Dolphins. Gruden knows these wins are important going down the stretch and they cannot afford to lose to a 3-7 team. I think the Raiders handle their business and win the game, but it will be close. I think if you’re going to bet the spread in this one, you take the team with something worth playing for and lay the points with the Raiders.
#10 Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, O/U 49) at Filthadelphia Eagles (Monday Night Football)
I am not sure why this line is so close. It makes me think that the odds makers are thinking the Eagles can keep this close versus a bad Seahawks defense. It is going to rain, which could be what’s impacting the line and maybe the over. For this one, I took a deep dive on some stats. In his three games on grass fields like the one in Philly, Wilson has 65.3% completion percentage, 5 TDs and 6 INTs, and an 83.9 QBR. On turf fields (seven games), Wilson has a 73.4% completion percentage, 25 TDs and 4 INTs, and an 125.4 QBR. On the other hand, Wilson is 5-0 versus the Eagles lifetime. I think this game is going to get sloppy and I am going to take the Eagles with the points in the rain as well as the under. I see a heavy dose of Miles Sanders and I think we see Jalen Hurts at some point in the game.
Thanks again for reading, and have a great Sunday!
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