STOP. If you are reading this, click LIKE at the bottom of the blog, don’t be a douche.
I am continuing to win on my picks, so I hope you’re following them and not placing a bunch of extra bets. Because, then you’ll be up money, unlike me, who keeps reaching for props and parlays and betting the whole board for funzies. I will bounce back, but as far as the picks go, here’s another 5 – 3 week! Where do I go from here? Well, this is the spinzone: I am 24 – 16 since week 7 when I started doing these blogs. I may be down some money, but if one person is up, because they are following my picks, then that makes me happy. If no one is following my picks or reading this, then I guess I’ll just pretend they are (probably the latter).
Something to know about me: I LOVE betting all the games. Bad beats this week include the entire afternoon slate. Packers -1, Vikings -7, Dolphins -3.5, Jets ML (long shot), all wrong. I am not mad about the Jets, I expected that would probably lose and only put a half unit down. But, to go 0-3 on the other games sucked hard.
Here is this week’s pick record: 5 – 3
Overall: 24 – 16
#1 Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday Night Football) - Win
The Chiefs are still for real, and we know that, but the Raiders are for real too. I would not mind this matchup as an AFC championship game or playoff game. Back and forth, up and down the field with players getting chippy and in each other’s faces is great football in my opinion. Also, Mahomes is quickly becoming comparable to Brady, where you cannot leave him ANY time left in the game if you want to win. You either gotta be up by two scores or have the ball down less than a touchdown with two minutes left and go win it yourself. It’s incredibly impressive. Finally, the shot of Carr at the end of the game just staring into oblivion, completely in game mode, was epic.
#2 Pittsburg Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1:00pm) - Win
I feel like I sound like a broken record talking about the Steelers. Do I think they can beat the Chiefs or Raiders in the post season? No. Do I think they will go undefeated? Yes. I think they will be the Bills on 12/13 and cruise to 16-0, unless they sit a bunch of guys week 17. I would bet they want that though, I would bet Tomlin and Ben want that undefeated season on their resume. The game Thursday night just got easier, with Baltimore’s top two running backs getting COVID. It’s going to come down to Lamar Jackson throwing the ball, and he hasn’t shown that he can do that effectively yet; more on that below.
#3 Buffalo Bills (Bye Week)
The Bills have had some time to heal from the heartbreak in Arizona. They need to have short memories, because the Chargers are coming to Buffalo and Herbert was DEALING on Sunday. Either the Bills will be able to slow down the Chargers and win the game, or it’s going to turn into a track meet between Allen and Herbert. This is my game of the week next week. I am so excited to watch it and am going to take the over no matter what it is, in the hopes of that track meet.
#4 Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (Thursday Night Football) - Loss
This one hurt. I don’t regret picking the Cardinals in this game, they had the ball with a chance to win in the end. Ultimately, they couldn’t tie it up, but that wasn’t the story for me. The story was the Seahawks defense. I do not think the difference was the Cardinals offense, potentially the offensive line has some responsibility, but the Seattle D showed up to ball. If Pete Carroll can get the Seattle defense to play that inspired the rest of the way, they will become a contender again, but if they slip, they will get in the playoffs and lose the first round.
#5 Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday 4:25pm) - Loss
Here’s the real spin zone. I am annoyed that Rodgers and the Packers lost this game, but on the other hand, if the Vikings can’t be successful, then neither can the Pack. I would have rather had the Vikings won, and gained a game on the Packers, but that wasn’t in the cards. I don’t think this game was reflective of how good the Colts are on offense. I think the Packers got tired on defense and lost this game for them. They stopped putting pressure on Rivers and let him pick them apart for the final third of the game. Just damn disappointing.
#6 New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00pm) - Win
It’s downright impressive how prepared the Saints are to work with backup quarterbacks. To have success so far this year and do what they did last year is a reflection of the players, but also the coaching staff in having systems and plans in place for success. They have a big challenge this weekend, heading to Mile High and we will see if the altitude and the Broncos are able to put an end to their win streak like they did with the Dolphins.
#7 Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (Sunday 4:05pm) - Loss
Speaking of the Dolphins… I won’t lie. I hammered this game. I thought there was no way with that defense that Drew Lock would play well. Hand up. I was WAY wrong. Drew Lock has got to be the most inconsistent quarterback I have ever seen. He’s terrible one week, then the next week is throwing darts. What was most surprising about the game, was how bad the Dolphins defense played against the run. Gordon and Lindsey gashed them for over 160 yards and were the obvious difference in the game. I love Fitzmagic, so I was glad to see him have a shot to bring him back. I do hope he gets a shot to play somewhere next year, because he can still play in the league. The Bengals should look at him to give Burrow the time he needs to recover.
#8 Las Angeles Rams at #10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Monday Night Football) – Win
Some have said that Tom’s age has impacted his ability to play in prime time the last couple of years. I believe the stat is the last 7 or 8 games in prime time, Brady hasn’t covered the spread. What is clear, is that his arm strength is dwindling. Those under throws at the end of the game were terrible. The Bucs have to have the lead at the end of the game to win, because Brady is struggling to push the ball down the field. They also need better run production and as it was well documented, the backs need to catch the ball coming out of the backfield. The Rams? The Rams are good, but they aren’t a legit contender yet.
#9 Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 1:00pm) – Win
The Ravens and Titans are not good. If either team gets into the postseason, they are looking at a first-round exit. They just aren’t complete teams right now. The Titans have a great running game obviously, but their passing attack is inconsistent. Both defenses are inconsistent, and Baltimore’s offense is sus. I think the Baltimore offense and Lamar Jackson may be frauds. Many people might not like that opinion, but for a passer like that you need a solid running game, and for a solid running game you need an offensive line. That’s not there right now for the Ravens.
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