Happy Friday everyone! I hope your week went by just as quickly as mine did. I am excited for this week’s match-ups but am trying to get my mind right. Last week threw me for a loop with some of the high scoring games. This kills me, because if you follow this blog, you know I love betting the over and rooting for points. The sad thing now is, with the ebb and flow of the league, this weekend could be an under weekend. That makes me sad.
I want everyone to know that the reason for the delay on this week’s blog is due to my serious commitment to making picks. My mind was in a pretzel after last weekend. I am now in a better place. I have been working through these games the last few days in my mind. I am ready to shoot from the hip on these games and hope you enjoy the weekend as much as I will.
Thanks for reading!
Wild Card Record: 4-7-1 | Overall: 4-7-1 (36%) | Straight Record: 3-3 (50%) | O/U Record: 1-4-1 (20%)
Wild Card Picks:
Bills -6.5 / Over 51
Rams +3.5 / Under 42.5
Washington +9 / Under 45
Titans +3.5 / Over 54.5
Bears +10 / Over 47
Browns +6 / Over 47.5
*Denotes a line change when I entered bets
Super Wild Card Weekend Thoughts:
Going 50% on the games is all I can ask for from a gambling perspective. I still am struggling on the over / under but am committed to continue to improve. The biggest surprise of the weekend for me was how much the Titans struggled versus Baltimore. The question in my mind is whether that is a direct reflection of how good Baltimore’s defense is playing, or how inconsistent the Titans are on offense. The Steelers losing wasn’t a surprise to me. The way in which they lost though, definitely was. I do feel bad for the Bears and was hopeful they would be able to keep it close. Clearly that wasn’t the case. Like I said above, everything I am hearing is that people are projecting games to be lower scoring this weekend. That is in line with my thought about how close the games this weekend will be. Last week the average margin of victory was 8.5. I think that margin goes way down this weekend.
Divisional Round Preview and Picks:
Green Bay Packers (-6.5, O/U 45.5) vs Los Angeles Rams (Saturday 4:35pm)
Everyone is making this game about Adams versus Ramsey. That’s a valid argument, but I think there’s more to look at with this game. I think this is going to boil down the run game for both teams. I do not think Goff plays the whole game. It’s going to be cold in Green Bay. One wrong hit to that throwing thumb and we are going to see Blake Bortles in the game. The Rams won’t be able to keep the Packers off the field without running the ball. I am betting we see some bubble screens and creative plays to get the ball out of the QB’s hands quick for the Rams.
Green Bay has the 7th rated pass defense in yards per game, while the Rams are 1st. When it comes to rushing the Rams are 4th in defense in yards per game while the Packers are 13th. I am not sure if the Rams have what it takes to win this game, it’s going to come down to how Donald is able to play. But, with or without Donald, I think the Rams will be good enough defensively to keep it within the number. I am less confident on the over, but I am going to take it so long as it stays under 47.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5, O/U 49.5) vs Baltimore Ravens (Saturday 8:15pm)
This is the game I am most excited for this weekend. I have stated that I am pulling for the Bills and I think the weather is going to be the MVP of this game. Buffalo’s rush defense is where they are most susceptible. They know this and will look to load the box and try and force Lamar to beat them with his arm… in the cold. This is where I think the Bills win. I think Lamar makes mistakes in the air. I think the Bills will be able to capitalize on those mistakes and hit enough big plays to win this game. I also think the fact that the Bills had a scare against the Colts was good to ensure they are sharp for this weekend. This one is going to be close. As long as the line is under three, I am on the Bills. If the line starts to move, I may change my mind. I hate the over / under on this game. I may not even bet it if it stays at 49.5. But, if I was forced to make a pick, I would pick the under. I am betting it will be within a point of this number.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10, O/U 57) at Cleveland Browns (Sunday 3:05pm)
This is a mind and heart game. I love Baker Mayfield. I am sorry, I am not sorry. I woke up today feeling dangerous and I am going to take the Browns in a major upset. I will take the points and sprinkle moneyline only for the story. It will also rob us of the Chiefs vs Bills game we were all expecting. I think this becomes a points fest. I think odds makers want the 57 to scare you to pick the under. I will not be scared. I am on the over. I am on the Browns. And I am ready for an awesome Sunday of craziness!
New Orleans Saints (-3, O/U 51.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 6:40pm)
Tom Brady versus Drew Brees is too obvious. Yea, yea, great storyline. Brees won both games so far. To me this again is on the defense. Brady threw four interceptions in their last meeting and there is no way that’s going to happen again. The Bucs have too many weapons right now that are all playing well. I am going to take the Bucs to stop the Saints from beating them three games in a row. I will be on them +3 and moneyline and will take the under here. I think both teams will be ramping up on defense. If the Saints aren’t able to turn over the Bucs, this game could get ugly in favor of Tampa Bay really quick.
Rams +6.5 / Over 45.5
Bills -2.5 / Under 49.5
Browns +10 / Over 57
Buccaneers +3 / Under 51.5
Only a few more weeks of football left! Soak it up and enjoy!
Thanks again for reading!
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